MKM Frankfurt – Top23 Decklists & Conversion Rates

The event coverage team of the MKM Series was kind enough to give me all the decklists of their 437-player Legacy Main Event that took place in Frankfurt this Sunday (since this apparently was a question a lot of people had asked me: I only got them after the event was over.) Because this was the first giant tournament following the ban of Sensei’s Divining Top I thought it would be really important to post more than just the Top8 decklists MKM usually provides, so let’s do this! It took me something like forever to type (let alone read some players’ writing..) these out but it’s totally worth it. I decided to go with all 8-2 lists instead of the arbitrary Top32 cut we often see; the latter doesn’t really make sense since it also has a lot of 7-3 players, which basically extend all the way down to 63rd place. Another thing I also want to look into is the conversion rate into an 8-2 finish or better. Later this week/month, Bob Huang and I are working on actually getting a complete matchup analysis, providing matchup%s based on all matches played in the tournament. No promises yet, since that information hinges on the scorekeeper sending me the digital pairings for all of the 10 rounds, which is something we’re still working on.

Top 32 decklists Legacy Main Event

Without further ado, here are all decklists of players finishing 8-2 or better:

Gather ALL the decklists!

1st — Johannes Gutbrod — Sneak Show
2nd — Walter Wölfler — BR Reanimator
3rd — Dalibor Szegho — Food Chain
4th — Matthias Schubert — Grixis Delver
5th — Christopher Wilhelm — Bant Deathblade
6th — Felix Bolland — 4c Loam
7th — Robert Swiecki — ANT
8th — Julian Knab — Elves

9th — Johannes Weiss — Red Eldrazi »

10th — Daniel Heerens — Jund »

11th — Sebastian Wibmer — Bant Deathblade »

12th — Marc Tobiasch — UB Reanimator »

13th — Carl Meinung — Czech Pile »

14th — Simon Hastreiter — OmniSneak »

15th — Eric Landon — Bant Deathblade »

16th — Tomáš Már — Czech Pile »

17th — Guillem Salvador Arnal — Grixis Delver »

18th — Daniel Rehmann — OmniSneak »

19th — Arne Huschenbeth — BUG Delver »

20th — Markus Paluch — Grixis Delver »

21st — Joshua Bausch — Aluren »

22nd — Karsten Tuitjer — 4c Delver »

23rd — Felix Hasenfratz — Grixis Delver »

Metagame Breakdown & Conversion Rates

Regarding the labelling of the decks I had to work with what MKM provided. “BUG Midrange” is probably the broadest of them all and I assume they grouped several decks into what they initially called “BUG Leovold”. From a strategic point of view, that’s fine since most BUG Midrange decks (Shardless, Reid Duke BUG etc) while not exactly the same play out in reasonably similar ways. Generally speaking, I think nobody will be surprised about Grixis Delver and Show and Tell-based decks doing well. Even before the Miracles ban, these two were considered the other top undisputed top dogs of the format, behind the former Miracles deck. Something I find amazing to see is the resurgence of Stoneblade decks; most notably Bant Deathblade. I remember how Philipp Schönegger (before he transformed into a real-life monk) always used to refer to these decks as a practical *BYE* because of their horrible Miracles matchup; it also didn’t help that Stoneblade decks often have a mediocre game1 against most combo decks, which previously left them with little room to address both of these Achilles heels. (Does that sound familiar to anyone?) The rest of the metagame looks pretty standardish; the only thing that’s a bit surprising to me is how few people actually played BUG Delver, given its great performance on Magic Online throughout 2017. I can only assume that a lot of the potential players had earlier switched into Grixis Delver or completely abandoned their insects in favor of the Czech Pile — a transition I have seen many former BUG/4c Delver players make over the last 1-2 years.

Fun story: among those 106 “other” decks we also found an actual pre-ban Miracles list. The poor guy somehow had missed the announcement and brought a deck with 4 Sensei’s Divining Top to the tournament. Said player only became aware of his mistake when the Head Judge reminded everyone about the ban during the players meeting, which meant that he had to add 4 more Basic lands to his deck.

Generally speaking, I wouldn’t read too much into this distribution of decks. The new metagame is still so fresh that I assume a lot of people didn’t have the time to really test for it. Judging by the people around me, most Miracles players either tried to keep the deck alive or randomly borrowed something else from friends. It will take another couple of months to really notice actual change in the meta that is more than just a recent trend. However, there’s something else that’s always super interesting to observe: how well did all the different decks do? In order to estimate this I want to look at what percent of the players of a certain decked managed to finish the tournament with a record of 8-2 or better:

 (excluding decks with fewer than 9 players; most prominently Eldrazi, Merfolk, Goblins and Aluren)

The thing that stands out here is how badly Death & Taxes and Elves did, considering they were the 3rd and 5th most played deck, only putting a combined single person at an 8-2 or better record. Death & Taxes in generally looks to continue its downswing it already started experiencing a couple of months ago. The deck is probably still playable but might need to make a couple of changes; but without knowing where the format is actually headed we should probably just wait and see how things play out.

Something else I want to point out is that Stoneblade decks (most of them of the Bant Deathblade variety; one of them Griselbrand-Blade) not only had a ton of players, but also the second-best conversion rate of all the decks in the format, greatly outperforming Death & Taxes and Elves which had a similar number of players. Only Grixis Delver managed to perform even better, making it the hottest claimant to the currently vacant throne of Legacy. Whether it will actually live up to to it, only time will tell. I strongly disagree with all the theorycrafting that had been going on for most of last week, with people claiming to already know how the metagame will develop and how one needed to adapt to that. Without wanting to offend anyone of you, but people who at best play like 5-10 matches a week yet claim deeper understanding of not only the status quo but also the status futurus are always suspect to me. It’s no problem if you don’t have the time or resources to play a ton of Magic, but don’t act like anyone of us definitely knew where the format was headed; that’s not only boring and misleading but also embarrassing.

Anyway, that was a ton of typing, but at least it gave me an opportunity with the Broodwar ASL Round of 16 groups! It’s 4am right now and I have to work tomorrow, so I guess I better get to bed now. As I mentioned, we’re currently working on also getting all the pairings in digital form, so that we can calculate matchup%s, similar to the way the Hatfield brothers used to do it with their “Too Much Information” articles. Really looking forward to that data!

So long,
JulianPS: When the head judged announced Sensei’s Diving Top was banned:


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One thought on “MKM Frankfurt – Top23 Decklists & Conversion Rates

  • May 3, 2017 at 4:31 pm
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    Excellent information, as usual Julian! Thank you for all that you do for the community!

    Reply

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